A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
