🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement receives the award. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or just the greatest surprise.

However the current competition is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners declining and recent underperformers improving together. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against five other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still